24.2 Open Announcement Preview

The 24.2 Open Announcement happens this week out of Justin Medeiros’s garage aka CrossFit Shred Shed, and has Medeiros, the two-time fittest man on earth facing off against one of the most popular athletes in the sport, Colten Mertens.

Justin Medeiros comes into the 2024 season on a low after a disappointing 2023 season.  Medeiros finished the CrossFit Games in 13th place, which is the lowest he has ever finished at the CrossFit Games.  His 5th in the North America West Semifinal may have been some foreshadowing towards the Games as his 5th place was the lowest he has finished at a Semifinal.  In fact, the last time he finished that low on the leaderboard in an in-person competition was 2018 Regionals where he finished 14th.  Medeiros’ bright spot in 2023 was te Individual Quarterfinals, where he took first in both NA West and Worldwide.

Colten Mertens on the other hand is coming into the 2024 season on a high note after a career best season.  Mertens’ 18th at the CrossFit Games was his first finish in the top 30, and the first time he was able to compete on Sunday at the Games.  At Semifinals, Mertens clinched his games spot with an 8th at North America West.  This performance included a world record in Semifinals Linda.  Mertens started the season off with bang thanks to a 3rd place in the 2023 CrossFit Open.

Head to Head Competition Results

On a head to head competition basis, Justin Medeiros holds a heavy advantage.  Going back to the 2017 CrossFit Open Justin Medeiros has finished higher on the leaderboard in 13 out of 15 competitions.  The two competitions that Mertens came out ahead were both CrossFit Opens, 2023 & 2019.

CompetitionJustin MedeirosColten Mertens
2023 CrossFit Games1318
2023 North America West Semifinal58
2023 Individual Quarterfinals116
2023 CrossFit Open783
2022 CrossFit Games132
2022 Individual Quarterfinals135
2022 CrossFit Open34
2021 CrossFit Games131
2021 Individual Quarterfinals621
2021 CrossFit Open5718
2020 CrossFit Open68108
2019 The Granite Games426
2019 Crossfit Open119403
2018 Crossfit Open217434
2017 Crossfit Open3845923

Head to Head Event Finishes

On a head to head event level, Justin Medeiros still has a sizable win ratio over Colten Mertens, but it is considerably smaller.  In 2023, Medeiros beat Mertens in 20 events while Mertens had the advantage in 8.

Head to Head Event WinsMedeiros WinsMertens Wins
2023 CrossFit Games84
2023 North America West Semifinal52
2023 Individual Quarterfinals50
2023 CrossFit Open22

With 24.1 behind us, crossFit has revealed two of the movements in the Open.  While both snatches and burpees have been repeated in the same Open before, it is unlikely they will be in back to back weeks in the 3 week Open era.  Taking these two movements out of the comparison, the ratios are similar.

Head to Head Event Wins (no burpees or snatches)Justin MedeirosColten Mertens
2023 CrossFit Games63
2023 North America West Semifinal31
2023 Individual Quarterfinals30
2023 CrossFit Open11

In all events from 2023 Medeiros beat Mertens 71% of the time.  If we take away snatches and burpees, Medeiros beats Mertens 72% of the time.

When it comes to programming, Open workouts tend to be simpler than what we see later in the season.  When looking at just Open workouts, the head to head matchup is close, with Mertens having a 1 event lead in the Semifinals era.

Head to Head Open EventsMedeiros WinsMertens Wins
2023 CrossFit Open22
2022 CrossFit Open12
2021 CrossFit Open22
2020 CrossFit Open32
2019 Crossfit Open32
2018 Crossfit Open42

Both athletes are coming into the announcement with something to prove.  Mertens is here to show that 2023 wasn’t a fluke, and proved it with his 24.1event win, while Medeiros is out to show everyone that he deserves to be back in the conversation for Fittest on Earth.

All data for this article is available on Patreon

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